Playin' with numbers

Well, been lookin' at some old numbers a new way trying to see what there is to see. The old "what count is a batter more likely to get a hit" question is on my agenda again.

Most people are used to seeing that expressed as a batting average on a specific count, but there are some very good reasons not to just go by that figure. What I've just done is to modify my program to look at things a little differently.

Rather than a batting average, I'm looking at it as simply whether the pitcher is ahead or behind in the count. I threw out even counts because such a high percentage of hits come on the 1st pitch or other even counts. In my limited data, 1,084 plate appearances and 284 hits, roughly 25% of all the hits come on the 1st pitch and 45% of all hits come on even counts.

When you think about it, that's perfectly natural because every batter that goes to the plate gets to see at least 1 pitch. It also seems natural that the percentage of total hits will also go down with every succeeding pitch, and the numbers indicate that too.

The percentages, so far, break down like this. 34% when the pitcher is behind in the count, 21% when he's ahead and 45% when the count is even. The only thing one can really say from those numbers is that there is more chance of a batter getting a hit when he's ahead of the pitcher.

What seems more significant is that more hits come on the 1st pitch than any other, even if there are more 1st pitches than any other. Can it be that more care needs to be taken on the 1st pitch? I thought about that a little too and a couple things came to mind.

Since its obvious that its to the pitcher's advantage to get ahead of the batter, he has to make a good pitch. Even if it isn't in the zone, it should be good enough that a batter will take a swing. One thing's for sure, unless a pitcher has a really good "money" pitch, he can not fall into a pattern on 1st pitch or he will pay the price.

He should throw his "money" pitch on the 1st pitch, and it can't be down the middle! That way, if the batter gets a hit, he'll have to hit the best thing the pitcher can throw. If that's what a pitcher is doing and he makes a good pitch the batter hits, what mote can he do? Should he throw a pitch that's his 2nd or 3rd best pitch an pray? Not good odds in that move! Of course he can't do the same thing every time, but IMHO, he's got to go with what got him on the mound because that's where his best chance is for making a "good" pitch.

Something else interesting is that nearly 50% of all hits come on either the 1st or 2nd pitch with the chances of the pitcher winning the battle going up significantly if he's ahead of the batter.

Anyway, I just like to look at the numbers and try to see if I can find any new trends. Hopefully, in the weeks ahead, either I'll find something interesting, one of you will find something interesting, or maybe its just a futile effort.

Take a look and if you have any comments or questions, please feel free to do so. Oh yeah, these number come from a team of 16Us and their opponents.

-----------p1 p2 p3 p4 p5 p6 p7 p8 p9 p10

Behind---00-33-21-21-07-07-04-04-00-00 - 97
Ahead----00-35-06-17-01-00-00-00-00-00 - 59
Even------73-00-27-00-19-08-01-00-00-00 - 128
Totals----73-68-54-38-27-15-05-04-00-00 - 284